I don’t think anyone is comfortable with the idea of nuclear proliferation, especially when it has to do with perceived enemies. Is Iran an enemy to the United States? Perhaps in some sort of loose, philosophical sense. Iran has not made any attempt to attack the United States despite our continued presence in the Persian Gulf. Perhaps the government has sponsored anti-American terrorists, and Iran does not show up on the list of American well-wishers.
Yes, Iran has explicitly stated the desire to see Israel, the “rotting corpse,” of the Middle East, wiped off the map. I guess in a way they’re our enemy, if we estimate our ties to Israel to be that strong. And yes, they threaten to shut down the Strait of Hormuz and threaten to attack us if we try to stop them.
Do any of you really buy all of that?
If there’s one thing we should have learned from crazy world leaders like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, it’s is that they’re full of a lot of hot air and not much else. One would think that after years of dealing with psychotic idiots like Kim Jong Il that these little dictators actually fear America quite a bit. How do we know this? Well, for starters, these countries usually make really serious threats and never, ever follow through. When was the last time North Korea nuked someone? When was the last time Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz?
You have to think about all of this strategically from the perspective of the leadership. They make these huge threats because they know that everyone in the world will hear their voice. When Kim Jong Il threatened to nuke neighboring countries, everyone listened. When Ahmadinejad threatened to attack our ships in the gulf, and said that Israel should be annihilated, everyone listened. That’s what they want: they want you to listen and to be afraid.
That’s the only logical explanation for all the ridiculous threats that I can conjure up. Much of Iran’s economy relies on oil exports, and although Iran has threatened to cut off its largest consumers, any intelligent person would know how disastrous that would be for the country as a whole. It would be like if Honda threatened to stop selling cars to 90% of its clientele and hoping to still stay afloat financially.
And when was the last time Iran cut anyone off? In fact, Europe has largely supported an oil embargo on Iran. Woops, I guess Ahmadinejad didn’t really calculate that into his equation. And magically, facing an embargo off of the country’s top money-making commodity, Iran seems poised to be more flexible in dealing with the issue of its nuclear program.
So why should we not fear Iran having a nuclear program? Because we know that in this day and age, every nation knows that using nuclear weapons as a first-strike offensive spells certain doom for the aggressor. If Iran develops a nuclear weapon, that bomb will never see the light of day, except maybe in some public show of force, pride, or whatever. Why didn’t North Korea ever nuke anyone? Because they knew that if they did, the entire planet would unite against them and crush them into dust. Even their ally, China, would abandon them in that scenario.
“But Ahmadinejad and his thugs are crazy!” And Kim Jong Il and his thugs weren’t? Ahmadinejad actually seems like an intelligent leader, whereas Kim was busy making music videos. No, if Iran obtains nukes, they will not use them. Ever. My guess is that they all prefer living to being dead. Iran is fully aware of our military capability, and they know that it would be stupid to provoke the U.S. into all-out war.
So don’t buy into the fear mongering. Don’t get mad at Ron Paul when he says that Iran is not a real threat. They’ve never been a threat to the United States. Militarily, Israel is a bigger threat to Iran than Iran is to Israel. Who would come to Iran’s aid should Israel invade? Israel has nukes. Wouldn’t you be a little nervous if your avowed enemy had nukes and you didn’t? Or are we just going to ignore 50 years of Cold War history?
I agree with your analysis on Iran not wanting to use a nuke if it has it. But I wonder if Israel feels that way? If Israel launches attacks on Iran’s nuke facilities (Leon Panetta seems to think this may happen as soon as this spring) then Iran will probably retaliate. Not with nukes, mind you, but will it stop there? Israel bombs Iran setting back the nuke program, Iran bombs Israel because they are pissed off, a few hundred Israelis and Iranians die and everyone goes home? Should this happen we will probably see a significant spike in oil prices and the increase in gas at the pumps here would spike as well. This is causing major heartburn for the presidents re-election campaign for obvious reasons and would be a major drag on an already fragile economy. So even without using the nukes Iran is still stirring the pot of bad brew and could cause us headaches. The other scenario might be the same Israel/Iran bomb exchange but it not stopping there leading to a major ME conflict which would eventually draw us in. We are still to dependent on ME oil to not get involved. This could last for many years and would devastate western economies due to loss of oil supply and, perhaps, even China’s. China is already in a fragile state of peace between it’s rulers and it’s people and could be tipped into revolution if it’s economy takes too large a hit. World wide depression could be a result of Iran’s playing the nuke game so we would have to invade Iran giving them a real reason to think about using said nuke after all. Of course, another scenario is that all of this just ends up being bluster and there will be no Israeli strike, Iran will get the bomb it will never use, and we will all live happily ever after. Unless you live in Greece that is. But that is a whole nother story…as my Daddy would say.
You’re right that if Israel attacked Iran, Iran would most assuredly retaliate. I don’t think, however, that Israel would ever perpetrate a first strike, as first strike nations generally tend to be frowned upon these days (unless you’ve got bigger guns, like we do). Plus, Israel probably knows that we’d likely not back them should they go on a military venture like that.
I don’t think we’re as dependent on Middle Eastern oil as you think. I believe over 75% of our oil ceoms from the Western hemisphere, whether it be from Canada or South America. I could be wrong, though.
So true that Iran is being hyped for American villain consumption. The bravado on behalf of the Iranians works to the Mullahs benefit as they don’t have firm support in their country. What solidifies nationalism like a little war talk? I believe that China said they would react if Iran were threatened, which is something most Americans don’t realize is that there are other large oil-consuming countries in the world who have influence also. And China is holding our debt.
The last two heads of Mossad said attacking Iran would be foolish, but what do they know?
If Israel feels threatened, let them hit Iran, and we can get the XL pipeline going along with some domestic drilling. Oil issue/price spikes at least addressed, a few jihadists united with their 72 virgins, Israel can exhale for a while…Everybody wins.
Solid article, Jack! Good to see so much fine stuff posted here by friends of our host.