Thoughts on Politics
While the race for the GOP presidential nomination heats up, there has been a great deal of debate about what sort of candidate can win. Much of the conversation centers on the oft-discussed “independent vote.” While I agree that winning over independent voters is critical, the way the term “independent voter” is used is incorrect, and thus, strategies targeting this group often miss the mark.
The problem is that the term “independent” is used as a synonym for “moderate” or “centrist.” While moderates comprise a fair share of independent voters, the group is far more diverse than that. For example, I have a number of libertarian independent friends, some of whom are as far from the center as you can get. Ditto on the left.
A married couple with whom I am close friends are the embodiment of what I’m talking about; he’s more-or-less libertarian, she’s more-or-less-socialist, and both are politically independent because they’re disgusted with American politics. If you mistake their independent status as meaning moderate and offer up a dolled-up establishment centrist like Mitt Romney, you’ll be unlikely to get either of them to the polls next November.
To win the independent vote, in my humble opinion, you really need to figure out why these voters do not align with a party. Some of these voters may be ideologically driven, but they fall all over the political spectrum. But it is a mistake to think that independent voters have shunned party affiliation because they agree with the two major parties fifty percent of the time.
By and large, I think the largest share of independent voters is looking for someone they can trust. Confidence in politics—especially Washington politics—is at record lows. When Americans lost confidence in the GOP during Bush’s second term, they flowed over to the Democrats. Now they are losing confidence in Democrats, and are starting to flow back to the Republicans. None of these shifts have represented any significant change in ideology, but rather, a loss of confidence.
For what it’s worth, to win a large share of the independent vote, the GOP needs to nominate someone who the non-ideologically-driven independent voters believe they can trust. Preferably it will be someone with a non-establishment reputation, as Obama was able to convince voters in 2008. After all, a large percentage of independent voters are disgusted with the two major parties, regardless of where they fall on the political spectrum.
If my reading is correct, the strategy of nominating a “safe” candidate to court independent voters under the belief that they are predominately moderates is a poor one. This strategy confuses political independence with ideological centrism, and fails to address the central concern of a large percentage of these voters, namely, that politics-as-usual is simply awful.
Excellent article. All independents are not moderates or centrist. However, I wonder if the majority of them are. As well, I wonder how many voters who call themselves “independents” in polls are actually centrist registered as democrats or republicans. The respective parties are under such fire from one another that moderates may not want to be branded or identified as being part of what they see as either extreme. My gut tells me that this type voter might actually flip parties for a candidate if they they think they can trust him or her (as you say).
I think Dick Morris is accurate when he says if an incumbent is in a close race this far out and a large block of voters are calling themselves undecided, that most of those voters are leaning toward voting for the challenger but are not ready to say it out loud. In other words, Obama would suffer a landslide defeat if elections were held this November. But they are not and there is lots of time to sway the ‘undecided’.
I agree that having a non-establishment candidate as the GOP nominee would be best. But I don’t buy the claim that most voters saw Obama as non-establishment in 2008. He misrepresented himself as a centrist when in reality he is one of the most liberal politicians in American history. In doing that, he snookered a good many of the voters who were looking for anyone but Bush to replace Bush.
“For what it’s worth, to win a large share of the independent vote, the GOP needs to nominate someone who the non-ideologically-driven independent voters believe they can trust.”
I disagree. McCain would be an example of a wishy-washy compromising RINO which I think equals “non-ideologically-driven” and this will demoralize our base and keep GOP voters home. We need a politician who adheres to conservative principles, the Constitution which could be considered by some to be “ideologically-driven”.
Rather than refer to them as independent, which many truly are, I think it is more useful to think about them as “swing voters”. As you say, they cover the gambit from libertarian to socialist. In total my guess is they make up between 4% and 6% of the electorate. Many in this group are not particularly political. They vote for the candidate more than the Party. Sometimes I wish that all candidates for public office should have to run at-large. But, it probably would change much in the long run.
I agree with your synopsis. I am an independent because my interests in political issues run from center to far right. As an example, while I believe in regulated entitlements for those truly in need I oppose permanent welfare entitlements for those able to work. I believe in a strong military but I don’t think defense contractors or any other K St.lobbyists should have access for legislators or that industry lobbyists and attorneys have the option of writing legislation because the politicians are too stupid to understand them, the so called ‘health care reform bill’ as one example and the list goes on and on.
I keep hearing how the GOP must “appeal” to the Independents… keeping you description in mind. Then we need the to find “some” hispanics to win in certain races. Then we need to start appealing more to the Black voters. Honestly, since I believe we are coming to the last stage of our Republic in this next election, I say let her rip. Find us a good honest conservative and take the outcome. This dripping away of our values and liberties for the sake of some votes is getting me quite weary.
I’ve been thinking the same thing for a long time, but was unable to marshal my thoughts as you have done so ably.
Conservative candidates don’t need to go squishy and compromise their beliefs to attract non-partisans, they just need to honestly couch their message in palatable language. It won’t get all the “independents” but it will attract those who fundamentally agree but are otherwise turned off by the message.
I think you are right on the mark. I would bet that most independents are in the center but there is a portion who are not and they are the ones who are most likely forgotten about as they are lumped in with the centrists. These are the voters who will decide the election and I think Jim is right on when he said that they should be called swing voters.
I have always been unaligned with a party so I won’t face the “not in my name” issue.
Excellent analysis of the independent voter. I believe you are spot-on in your assessment of this class of voters. I’m not sure a Mitt Romney type or even Perry will sway them. I think we do need to look at someone less establishment and perhaps this is a Herman Cain or maybe even one who appears to be breaking all the rules by bucking the establishment like Sarah Palin. Either way putting up another John McCain type is not going to get done.
I totally agree with John – An establishment ‘John McCain’ type of candidate inspires no one and leaves one suspect as to what that candidates agenda really is – most likely more of the same old, same old….WM
Sorry for the slow response, everyone, but I was on vacation last week, and had this post sent over to LD before I left. I’m flattered by the compliments here. this post is another example of the power of panguage and definitions – by conflating the terms independent and moderate, the political debate has been clouded.