It is now 29 days until the mid-term elections on November 2 and the campaigns are in full swing. Members of Congress have vacated Washington, heading back to their home districts, where some are in heated battles for their political lives. Not all, but some of those fights are between Democrats and opponents who are closely associated with the Tea Party. Those opponents have already won their primary battles over other Republican candidates, some of who were picked by the establishment. Christine O’Donnell, Rand Paul, and others come to mind. Even though the Republican establishment is not happy with some who have won the right to campaign against the Democrats, they are faced with having to deal with them. Those dealings could become even more complicated if the Tea Party candidates are able to defeat the Democrats and move into their seats in Congress.
As I was browsing through the news this morning, I came across an article on CNN that was talking about Senator John Thune, Republican of South Dakota. Speaking on C-SPAN Newsmakers, he had this to say about the Tea Party and it’s candidates.
If Republicans neglect the concerns of Tea Party activists, the group could break off to form a third party as early as 2012, warned Republican Senator John Thune.
Thune, who is considering a presidential run, said if Republicans manage to take back the Congress next month, they will have to work quickly to deliver results to voters.
“If we do not govern according to our principles and if we don’t follow through on the things that we say we’re going to do, I think the Tea Party–I think there will be a third party in this country,” Thune said on C-SPAN Newsmakers.
He applauded Tea Party candidates running for office this year as energetic and driven and said their concerns coincide “with what many of us who are there want to see done.”
But the chairman of the Republican Policy Committee said the Senate would be very different considering “many of the candidates that are running on both sides this year are people who maybe don’t have long resumes or experience in politics or government … but are very motivated.”
“We’re going to have a lot of new people. And a lot of the people who got to the Senate in many cases ran campaigns that were about a very–a very distinct agenda,” Thune said. “There are going to be a lot of new faces and probably some pretty strongly-held views. And we’ll see how that works.”
For weeks, some of us who have been blogging about the possibility of a wave of Republican victories in November, have been questioned about what we expect out of the Republicans candidates, if the victories do come. We have said we expect them to live up to their promises of moving back to a smaller federal government and fiscal responsibility and if that didn’t happen, they would suffer the political consequences. Senator Thune’s remarks lets me know that we are not the only ones looking at the different scenarios that could result from a strong showing from the Tea Party candidates. It will truly be a work in progress, as the Republican establishment in Washington will have no choice but to work with new members of Congress who are not of their choosing.
The most troubling portion of Thune’s remarks is about the possibility of the Tea Party forming a third political party in this country. As I have said many times, I believe that would be a mistake and could possibly hand the reins of power over to the Democrats for the foreseeable future. (Without watching a video of Thune’s appearance on C-SPAN, I can not tell if he is worrying about the possibility of a third party or if he is just stating what he thinks could happen.) I truly hope the Republicans and the Tea Party can work together to address some of these concerns. The alternative would not be a good thing.
What are your thoughts on the Tea Party forming a third political party, completely separate from the Republican Party? Would that be a good thing, in your opinion? Feel free to comment and tell me what you think.
On the right, we’ve been discussing the third party question for years. Those discussions have likely gone on forever, but I became involved in 2006-2007, well after it became clear that the GOP had completely lost their way. I’ve posted on it as well, but one thing remains clear. Conservatives are content, for now, to use the GOP as a proxy.
I would agree with Thune’s assessment. While we have met some success, it is clear that the GOP establishment does not welcome us, and they will undermine Conservatives when they can. It is a marriage of convenience at this point.
If the GOP retakes Congress, the next two years will be difficult. Obama will resist all efforts to repair the damage done to this country. The unions, and other groups will attempt to intimidate anyone who challenges their agenda. They have come too far, and are too close to achieving the power they desire. If the GOP falters, and cooperates with the administration on legislation that undermines freedom or the economy. The calls for a third party will increase.
In a scenario in which the GOP does not at least hold the line, there will likely be defections to a third party. The real problem for the GOP is this, the Tea Parties, all over the country, have infiltrated to local precincts of the GOP. From what I have been hearing, they have been successful. There has also been some success in infiltrating to the state level. If the defection happens, it is very possible that the GOP would be gutted at the state and local level. It would be a crippling blow.
The significant downside to this is while the Conservatives could gut the GOP, the establishment would still have the power to split the vote, so for at least one election cycle, the Democrats would win. I don’t know if there would be any America left to save if that happened.
This is a great assessment, Matt. I think it is worth noting that if the GOP does regain control of Congress in November, a lot of things could happen in the two years leading up to the presidential election of 2012. Those two years could be the difference between having a Republican Party who will listen to it’s members or having to jump ship to a third party. Personally, I think that would not be a good thing, as the members of any third party would likely come from the GOP.
I find the evolution of all of this fascinating and truly historic. I read a blurb last week in which John Conryn (heard of the NSRC) basically said that the infighting between the Tea Party candidates and the GOP establishment is over.
Matt, since you’re dialed in, what’s you sense on this holding? Does it depend on how those Tea Party candidates do on Nov 2? In other words, if they don’t win do you think the “infighting” (not my word) begins anew with the GOP establishment saying something like “OK, we get what you’re about but the voters don’t. Next”?
I’m also interested in the strategies of the Tea Party candidates. Several of them have a strategy of refusing to speak to their local media, preferring to put their message out via only national, friendly media. Sharron Angle actually ran from a local news crew in Reno a couple of weeks ago (that one’s on tape) and O’Donnell is purported to have adopted the same although I’m not sure of that.
Last- the general quality of the candidates themselves. Is it acceptable to have a candidate for Senate who says it’s never acceptable to lie, yet fudged a resume to say she attended Oxford University when in fact she didn’t? That’s one of the more troubling things about Christine O’Donnell, and of course left up to the voters of Delaware. But if she won’t answer questions from those who have a vested interest in the outcome in her state, are the voters truly being introduced to the person she is, or just the person she wants people to think she is? Or doesn’t that matter anymore?
My take on the current situation is that everyone is working together, for the moment, to defeat the common enemy of all Americans; Obama, Pelosi, and Reid. If and when that objective is achieved, things will get interesting. There will be infighting between the Tea Party folks, and the moderates, and that will be a struggle for the ages. That will help set the stage for 2012.
As for your comments about the voters not getting it, the GOP establishment is just as out of touch as the Democrats. They are just as much in the DC unreality bubble.
I really can’t speak to Angle’s campaign. I really haven’t been following it. As for O’Donnell, she has been refusing to speak to the national media, and considering their bias, I can’t blame her. I’m not sure about the local. Considering that many of these candidates have found success without media exposure, or in spite of attacks by the MSM, I don’t really think that they are relevant anyway. As for her record, I don’t think we can say much about it. For one, the folks in Delaware apparently wanted her. Secondly, we weren’t supposed to talk about Obama’s friends and past, so I think we ought to avoid unnecessary hypocrisy. What is good for the goose…
Thanks, Matt-
I wasn’t saying that the voters won’t get it-remains to be seen. I just wonder if the spirit of glastnost and perestroika that seems to be gelling between GOP establishment and the Tea Partiers will be shattered if the TP candidates can’t bring home victories. That establishment may be DC-entrenched and bubble-fied, but they still somehow are calling the shots.
I tend to agree with you on leaving much of a person’s past in the past…Especially during the crazy teen years, which is why I mentioned nothing about the much discussed fluff about O’Donnell-as-Glenda-the-Good-Witch
But when did Republicans become people who don’t care about integrity? Lying on a resume, misrepresenting an education-that’s acceptable from a Conservative candidate? Forget that you’re not from Delaware-in general, do you support the looking past this?
You bet-what’s good for the goose is good for the gander. But should this tit-for-tat be something that the GOP continues by ignoring glaring flaws in its candidates? Again-forget what Democrats are doing have done etc-Since when do Conservatives model acceptable behavior on that of Democrats?
Laurie, I’m doing nothing more than playing devil’s advocate here. Obama said that under ObamaCare, costs would go down. He lied, costs have gone up. He said that people won’t lose their doctors, they are. He said that people can keep their plans, but people are now paying more for less. He said there are no taxes in ObamaCare, but when the states sued, the administrations lawyers said there are taxes there. He said he passed the largest tax cut in history, and he didn’t cut a single tax. He lied again. So, if Obama can lie, why can’t O’Donnell?
The infighting may be over for the time being, but what happens after November 2 is anyone’s guess. If the Tea Party candidates win, how much will they try or be able to influence the direction of the Republican Party? I think that is the question that remains to be answered. There may be a bit of infighting if and when they attempt that influence. If they win, it should be fairly clear that is why they were sent to Washington. If they fail to even try to change the status quo, they will be in trouble with the very people who voted them into office. I think we will be able to tell a lot more after the new members of Congress take their seats and begin their work.
I wrote a post on this last night too. I have more questions than answers, but in a nutshell I think …
The economy will continue to deteriorate. The states will be looking for a bailout and yes, the banks will be looking for another bailout too. Meaning the Republicans will indeed disappoint. Maybe not the handful of new candidates, but none the less, the party will undoubtedly disappoint. They always have.
Does this lead to apathy or anger, I don’t know. Apathy will lead to another progressive like Romney or Huckabee. Anger will lead to another dominant political party. Don’t worry, the left is divided too. I’m Old School, so I think this is good. We need more “grid-lock” in DC.
There is great division among the Tea Partiers too. The problems our country faces are bringing to light the deep philosophical differences, and differing goals of the Old Right and modern conservative movement. War and social issues may very well feed a new political party, even if voter anger doesn’t set in. But with the economy in shambles, I think anger is unavoidable.
Turbulent times ahead. God help us all.
Thanks for your comment, CL, although I would heartedly disagree with your assessment of Mike Huckabee as a progressive. But, that would be the subject for another time.
It will be interesting, indeed, if the Tea Party candidates do win in November. What happens after that, I can not guess.
Great post Larry. Very thought-provoking. My own thoughts go to whether the Tea Party is trying to co-opt the Republican Party and take it much further to the right than the majority wants; or whether the Tea Party is pulling the GOP back to where it had been and long since got away from. There has been a Conservative Party or variation thereof for years so I’m inclined to beleive the Tea Party is pulling the GOP in a direction it’s not inclined to go. If the Tea Party restricted itself to the core tenets of smaller government and fiscal conservatism I believe they would have a stronger case; but what I see is something far more restrictive that many Republicans don’t support.
As a centrist my view of the Tea Party is from the outside whereas many of you look at it from the inside or closely connected to friends/communities who are Tea Party members. So you probably see a T.P. that is not getting covered even by Fox. The national voices of the T.P. are Glenn Beck, Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and now Christine O’Donnell, Sharron Angle, Rand Paul, and Jim DeMint. The message these people deliver to a national audience are much more radical than what many of you argue the Tea Party to actually represent. I think that’s a problem that may perhaps be rectified when/if the candidates get to Congress. For now I just find the message off key and overly harsh.
What do you mean by this? I’m curious, because when I think “further to the right,” I think libertarian or anarchist. In other words, the “core tenets of smaller government and fiscal conservatism” that you say “would have a stronger case.”
Is your concern “social” issues? War? If so, click over and read my post “Tea Party Movement: Beyond 2010.” If not, please explain. I’d like to understand.
I don’t think there would be a long standing 3 party system, but could foresee a third party forming and possibly replacing one of the standards (ex. Tea Party/GOP). Or it could be a third party forms and causes a sudden shift in policy and personnel in the “old gaurd” party. Either way it will open the door for the opposing party for a period of time, but would most likely result in a stronger “tried by fire” party that would better represent its constituents. Or… maybe I’m just crazy, thats always a possibility too…
What you describe is what the Republicans did to the Whigs.
My take is a bit different. As I sit here and gaze into my crystal ball this is what I see for what it is worth. I think the Democratic Party is the party that is imploding right now. I believe this because they so overreached and exposed themselves many people in this country are seeing the Democratic Party as the party of far left extremism. They want nothing to do with them. In very near future I feel the Democrats will become irrelevant. The party has been hijacked by the far left fringe and because of that they are essentially done as a force to be reckoned with.
As for the Republicans and Tea Party movement, I think you will eventually see a shift. The void that will be left by the Democratic implosion will be filled by establishment Republicans. Moderate Democrats will be pushed out of the Democratic Party and find a home with these establishment Republicans. They’re all friends any way so why not party together. The far right of the Republican Party will splinter off and join Libertarians and they will indeed form a major third party that will represent a distinct right mindset.
So yes there will be three parties, but only two will have any real power. That’s my opinion…and that’s all it is. Great post Larry.
I hadn’t thought about the Democrat Party becoming irrelevant, John. It’s an interesting thought, on that bears considering. I suppose I could see people like Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, and Mike Ross becoming a member of a new party that would pull it’s members from the more moderate members of the other major parties. Hmmm…………..
A few thoughts …
I’m 42 years old and have been hearing about this “shift” coming in the Republican Party for as long as I can remember. I’ve read about how this coming “shift” would happen any election cycle now too, over the 40 years prior to my birth. I’m not trying to be a party-pooper here, but the evidence is overwhelming … It ain’t gonna happen!
The 2 monopoly parties have rigged the system in their favor (and in the favor of incumbents too). That’s the only reason why it has been so difficult for a third-party to rise. This needs to be addressed by “We the People,” but it can’t be addressed with honesty through a partisan lens (either side).
There’s nothing inherently wrong with voting for individual Republican candidates. Heck, even Ron Paul is a Republican. That said, until movement conservatives break their faith in both the Republican Party and government in general (as the original American conservatives (Old Right) did), nothing of significance can/will ever change.
George Washington hated political parties. He’d give each one of us a scolding for even having this conversation. Jefferson would call for another revolution. It’s not enough to quote the Founder’s words, we have to adopt their mindsets. For example … movement conservatives hold the office of president in higher esteem than our first president himself did. Think about that.
One last thought … it’s the ADD
… We need to stop hanging our hat on the (obviously failed) Constitution, it’s the Declaration that matters!
@LD: See Jonah Goldberg (who isn’t remotely as radical as I) on Mike Huckabee. He’s addressed this topic more than once, but I recommend “Ron Paul Isn’t That Scary” (which is really more about Huckabee).
Larry, this might be somewhat off-topic (and I apologize in advance), but with the recent buzz around the One Nation rally attendance I was wondering about your take on things.
From what I can tell, the people who attended the One Nation rally left the Mall in a terrible shape. Speaking for myself, that is inexcusable. There seems to be a clear and distinct difference between this rally and Glenn Beck’s rally in September, both in size and in attitude.
Republlicans have got to take notice with what is going on with the Tea Party. The Republican party has been drifting away from its ideals for years and it is time for them to get back on track, that is what the Tea Party expects from them. I do not think that the Tea Party is trying to pull them to the far right as Mike suggested they might be, but rather back to where they should hae been all along.
If the Tea Party candidates get elected and let us down they will be voted out when they come up for re-election, I don’t think the Tea Party will form a third party just yet, but how many times can you get burned before you say enough is enough? If Republicans keep letting us down I believe there will be a chance that the Tea Party splinters, just not yet.
I think you are right on target, Steve. We should be able to tell a lot more after the new members of Congress take their seats and begin their work. They will be watched closely.
Yes they will be, I think they know this also and that will help to keep them on the straight and narrow.
I agree with you Steve. I have been repeatedly told (as a Tea Partier myself) that there is no intention on the part of the Tea Party to create a third party.
I also agree that the Tea Party is basically doing what the Republican Party should have been doing all these years. I think the infighting between the Tea Party and the Republican Party is quite telling. The Republican Party has to get back to their core values or many of them will be looking for new jobs.
I don’t agree with the above poster (can’t remember who it was) that thought the Democrats would become irreverent. I think they will saunter off, regroup, and come back to finish the job they started. They have been working behind the scenes for too long, waiting for just the right moment. If it’s not this one, they will find another moment to strike.
For the Tea Party, any wins in November is just the beginning. We need to fulfill our promises to the people and make sure the far left progressives never get a foot in the door again. The time for snoozing is over.
Thanks for the comment, Dominique. I think what happens after November will be very telling. It should give us an idea as to how some of this will play out. If the candidates who win are able to make a difference, that will be just the beginning of a good thing.
Glad to see to back around. Are you back in Oklahoma yet?
I don’t think they have any intention of forming a third party either, the goal is to get Republicans back on track. If we can accomplish this there will be no need for a third party.
The third party talk pre-dates the Tea Parties by a huge amount of time. They should stay as they are, that is their greatest function, to promote the ideas, and hold the people that are in office accountable.
You are exactly right, Steve. If the Tea Party is able to accomplish their stated goals, there will be no need for a third political party.
I think as Tea Party activists we would like to see quality candidates. Not just a live body who professes to be conservative and says all the right things but who in their real lives have some pretty shoddy skeletons in the closet.
I believe McDonnell and McMahon both lose the election because of their baggage and not because of their message.
If we just start throwing live bodies at the process pretty soon the Tea Party will become a synonym for all thats ugly and wrong with GOP politics.
Quality. Not quantity. It will come let us just hope that we get enough votes to really make a change in 2010 and beyond.
That’s a very good point, Doomed. We need to have good, quality candidates running for office. We will shoot ourselves in the foot if we do not.