Republicans win independent voters
As the news coverage of the GOP wins in Virginia and New Jersey continues, it is clear November 3rd was a big day for the Republican Party. Even though they lost the congressional seat in New York, they managed to pull off big wins in both of the previously mentioned states. The win in New Jersey itself was no small feat.
Most of the stories that I have read or listened to have all alluded to the fact that the congressional
seat in New York was lost because of infighting between the different factions of the Republican Party. That may be true to some extent, but I would say this. If Dede Scozzafava had won this election it would have made no difference. She would have been voting with the Democratic Party on most occasions. Had she not been in the race, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman may very well have defeated Bill Owens. With Owens winning, the margin was only 4%. Scozzafava pulled 6% and those votes would likely have went to Hoffman. Despite the efforts of the Democrats to portray the Republican Party as out of touch and fractured, etc. conservatives nearly pulled a win out of the hat. Maybe the Republicans are not as fractured as they have been made out to be.
The one trend that I have noticed is the number of independent voters who voted for Republicans in this election. These are some of the same voters who voted Barack Obama into the White House by a large margin and it highlights their importance. I am not of the opinion that we are about to go to a three party political system, but I do believe the days of voters identifying themselves with only one party are over. One of John McCain’s strong appeals in 2008 was his sway with independents. Had the economy not tanked, they may have pulled him to victory instead of Obama.
Every election in recent years has shown the need for the two major political parties to pay very close attention to these independents. Even as far back as Ronald Reagan, independents have been important. Right now, they seem to be swaying more towards the Republican candidates, but the GOP should be forewarned. If they fail to pay heed to these voters, 2010 may very well be just another election that brings more Republican losses. Failure to do so will insure failure itself.
Larry – You wrote: “Most of the stories that I have read or listened to have all alluded to the fact that the congressional seat in New York was lost because of infighting between the different factions of the Republican Party. That may be true to some extent, but I would say this. If Dede Scozzafava had won this election it would have made no difference. She would have been voting with the Democratic Party on most occasions. Had she not been in the race, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman may very well have defeated Bill Owens. With Owens winning, the margin was only 4%. Scozzafava pulled 6% and those votes would likely have went to Hoffman.”
Maybe I am misunderstanding what you are saying, but if there had been no infighting in the Republican Party and they had gotten behind Hoffman, he most likely would have won. The fact that the Republican Party backed the wrong candidate, led to Owens winning. How Scozzafava would or would not have voted makes not difference. It was two democrats running. If, again, it had been Hoffman and Owens, Owens probably would have been in serious trouble and we would have seen what we saw in VA and NJ happening in NY.
I guess I’m lost in your statement because you say it would have made any difference when in reality it would have made a lot of difference.
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The difference I am talking about is between Bill Owens and Dede Scozzafava. Their votes would probably have been the same in Congress. Does that make the statement any clearer?
Dede and Owens would have both supported Obamacare—there is little doubt in my mind about that. The middle did go republican in NJ and VA and that is certainly a change. But I should point out its the two extremes that always drag the middle toward them and not the other way around. The middle is just courted and the suitor with the biggest box of candy often wins the prize. Just a little humor.
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I agree that it would have made no difference if Scozzafava had won this seat. That is why this was a perfect location for the conservatives to make their stand.
Obama has definately lost some sway with independent voters. 25% of voters in VIrginia and 19% in New Jersey voted against the Democrats to oppose Obama, that may be a reletively small amount until you remember that Obama won these states one year ago by a large margin. There could be trouble on the horizon for Obama.
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