Republicans vs. Conservatives in NY Congressional Race
The race for the NY congressional seat left vacant when President Obama named moderate Republican John McHugh secretary of the Army has become the epicenter in the fight over the soul of the GOP. The county GOP chairmen chose moderate Dede Scozzafava as their nominee and tea party conservatives, with the growing support of national political figures, have flooded the blogosphere and the region in support of 
the candidacy of conservative Doug Hoffman. At the heart of the argument is the meaning of being a part of the GOP. Hoffman supporters including Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, and Dick Armey contend the Republican party must define itself in the Reagan tradition of social conservatism, smaller government, and lower taxes. Moderate Republicans supporting Scozzafava including Newt Gingrich and the national GOP are trying to broaden the appeal of the GOP to include swing vote moderates and independents. Scozzafava supports a woman’s right to choose and same sex marriage. The field has been chosen and the battle lines drawn but is the fight worth having if the result is a split party that hands the seat to the Democrats? The answer is probably yes but the long-term implications are enormous for the GOP.
People in the northeast are more liberal than people elsewhere in this country. Democrats are more liberal and Republicans are less conservative. There is considerably more tolerance for liberal social positions including abortion and gay marriage. The NY GOP chairmen understood that and selected a candidate they felt had the best chance of defeating a Democratic opponent. Now comes the national conservative movement to tell NY Republicans what type of candidate they should be running regardless of whether that candidate best represents the views of residents of that district. And here come tea partyists from outside the district and outside the state to canvas on behalf of a candidate who doesn’t even represent them. And here comes Sarah Palin and company to tell New York Republicans that they aren’t real Republicans and to please step aside while true Reagan Republicans lead the way. It’s really quite a political phenomenon and a harbinger of things to come as candidates around the country line up for next years races. Should the GOP adopt the social conservative, small government views of the Palinistas or should the GOP open up the tent to broaden the reach of the party?
The battle in the NY 23rd is shaping up between the Republican and the Conservative while the Democrat is leading in the polls with the election just a week away. If nothing else this should tell you the importance being placed by conservatives on simply beating the Republican even if they lose the seat (a 10/15 poll showed the Dem, Bill Owens, has 33%, the GOPer Scozzafava with 29%, and the conservative Hoffman with 23%). The seat means nothing given the overwhelming Dem majority in the House so the battle is well chosen for a conservative stand. One
wonders, however, whether this split of the Republican vote is an indication of things to come or whether the GOP leadership will succumb to the strong conservative showing. The conservatives themselves seem content to be “right” even it costs them elections to come. That’s a very principled stance – one that will bring joy to all Democrats.
The Republican party is in trouble. Polls show fewer voters self-identifying as Republicans and increasing numbers of independents. The reason given is concern over the increasing dominance of arch-conservative views. Republicanism is being equated with conservatism and many moderates don’t find room for their views. The question is, if conservatives win the battle and the GOP adopts a strictly conservative bent, will moderate Republicans embrace GOP candidates if the alternative is a liberal Democrat? Perhaps not, but what if the alternative is a moderate Democrat? And if I were the head of the Democratic party I would certainly push the party toward the middle in response to a conservative victory on the GOP agenda. That would be a disaster for the GOP to an extent even greater than what we are seeing today. I understand the desire among conservatives to fight this fight but I believe that if they win this battle they will ultimately lose the war. Complaints about Democrats pushing the country toward socialism will be hard to justify if a conservative “success” drives the country further to the left.
Some call the middle lame; but it’s where the majority of Americans reside. Moderate Republicans seem to get that and given the current backlash against Obama there is a major opportunity to capture independent votes with a moderate Republican platform at the national level. I expect the GOP will waste this opportunity due to conservative chest-thumping and that I find an unfortunate mistake.
LarryMike [gotta double-check who writes these posts!!], according to the latest poll, Doug Hoffman now has 31%, Democrat Bill Owens has 27%, and Dede Scozzafava has 20%.Scozzafava has been endorsed by the found of the ultra-liberal Daily Kos. He said something to the effect of “she’ll raise taxes when needed, and is to the left on social issues of even most Democrats.” And, of course, the national GOP establishment has gotten behind her, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to attack Doug Hoffman. Here’s an interesting article on Scozzafava and potential ethics violations.
MuskogeePolitico´s last blog ..Tom Cole to Endorse Doug Hoffman in NY-23 Race
Thanks for the poll update. I’d heard Hoffman was likely to move up to 2nd ahead of Scozzafava but leaping ahead of Owens too is quite a move. This is a winner take all election — no need to get more than 50%. In fact, it seems likely that the winner will get less than 40% — wouldn’t that be something?
The great American middle is a safe place in politics, but devoid of ideas and principals. I personally think the conservatives are right to support their candidate in N.Y. I will choose candidate over party any day and a man who doesn’t vote his principals is no man to me. Yes a move toward the right may sink the party. We should have a conservative and a liberal party in this country and not parties trying to be all things to all people and in doing so standing for nothing. I am not a realist when it comes to politics, but will vote for the man who best represents my values regardless of party. A good and thoughtful post as usual Mike.
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As a person in the great American middle I deeply resent the implication that I am a man without principles.
Good post, Mike and it brings up a good point.
The representatives we send to Washington, no matter if they are from New York, Connecticut, or Oklahoma, are supposed to be representative of the people who live in their district. As you pointed out, that would mean a more liberal Democrat or a more moderate Republican from the Northeast. By the same token, Democrats from Oklahoma are usually more moderate and Republicans are very conservative.
I don’t think I would necessarily like it if the national GOP came to Oklahoma and tried to tell us we needed someone more moderate to run for Congress. I don’t really blame the Republican Party in New York for standing their ground and pushing the candidate whom they think has the best chance to retain the seat for their party. If it takes a moderate to do so, then so be it.
I guess my point is this. I consider myself a strong conservative, but I wonder if we have not had too much extreme left/extreme right politics in our country. Not that I am about to change my position on abortion, government spending, 2nd Amendment, etc. (not necessarily in that order), but I have to ask myself a question. Is my conservative position on the issues being furthered by refusing to give an inch in any given election, even if it costs Republican a seat at the table?
Just some food for thought.
Good post Mike, you ask some great questions.
First I do have a problem with outside people sending money into state elections, I think that we would be better of if state politicians could only accept money from constituents.
But in choosing sides on this issue, if the other two candidates do split the vote and a Democrat ends up in the seat I don’t think that makes much of a difference. With the seat already belonging to a moderate/liberal this won’t change much. What is the difference of you have a Democrat or a Republican who is going to push Obama’s agenda? That is why I don’t understand Newt mindlessly endorsing someone just because they have an ‘R’ after their name.
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Great points, Mike.
I agree that outsiders should sit it out. After all, they’re electing someone to represent upstate New York. My opinion as a New Hampshirite is irrelevant, and the same goes for many of the rest of those making comments. This is a long-standing pet peeve of mine.
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Interesting development with the decision by Scozzafava to drop out of the race just 3 days before the election. Certainly this will embolden conservatives to challenge other Republican candidates who fail to faithfully adopt the conservative line. But it will also lead Democrats to encourage exactly that response. The Dems probably have mixed feelings about losing the seat but this may play very well for Dem candidates in next years Congressional races. As I said earlier, conservatives, having won this battle, may yet regret the victory.
Even more interesting is the fact that Scozzafava has came out in support of the Democratic candidate in the race, instead of the Conservative Party candidate. I will be waiting to see how the voters cast their ballots on this one.
Wow, I hadn’t heard that! How interesting. I don’t know if that’s an indication that she prefers the Democratic candidate politically or just is so disgusted by the actions of the conservatives. Yes, this will indeed make it very interesting to see if her supporters go with her endorsement of the Dem or, more likely, go with the conservative.
Scozzafava’s positions, on most issues, are left of even most Democrats. Apparently, there had been talk of her running as a Democrat or Independent before this race started. She supported Owens for (among other things) his close ties to organized labor, much like herself.
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I just heard another interesting tidbit — Hoffman, the conservative candidate, doesn’t even live in the district!! He can’t vote for himself!! When he was interviewed by the local newspaper he couldn’t answer basic questions about issues in the district yet the questions he was asked had already been printed in the daily newspaper before the interview — so he doesn’t read the local paper each day. Does anybody else have a problem with that? This is weird.
Well, yes.
If I lived in NY-23, I’d probably be writing in someone else. This looks like the election isn’t about that seat and is all about making some big national statement … which means using the people of NY-23 for something else.
Another pet peeve of mine … people should actually reside in the areas they plan to represent.
Wickle´s last blog ..Attacking incivility
I don’t understand how Hoffman can run in this election if he doesn’t live in the district. Isn’t there some sort of residency requirement? I have a problem with that, to be sure.
Sadly, no, there isn’t. Remember when Alan Keyes ran against Barack Obama for the Senate? Keyes is from (I think) Delaware.
The same thing for Hillary Clinton running for the Senate in New York. I think that Michael Bloomberg lives outside of NYC, too. I don’t really get it, but there isn’t a real residency requirement for a lot of offices.
I wouldn’t vote for such a person, but it’s not generally prohibited.
Wickle´s last blog ..Attacking incivility
Very interesting discussion, this post and Larry’s new one as well.
Something that I find interesting: The conservative media is hyping this election as a referendum on what conservatism means in the whole country. It’s also noteworthy to see that Hoffman will be appearing/has appeared as a guest on Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham national radio shows- and that’s just today. Will their considerable New York audiences hear any of the information brought forth here (not a district resident, not knowledgable on district issues etc)? Absolutely not-just Hoffman’s sales pitch and a confirmation from the radio folks that he’s The Real Conservative. Smart and slick of Hoffman, who appears to be quite a politician already…