Huckabee moves on to Florida
After a clearly disappointing loss to John McCain, in South Carolina, the Huckabee campaign has an opportunity to succumb to a lot of “what ifs”. What if Fred Thompson had not attacked Mike Huckabee with lies and deceit? What if the snow had not fallen on Saturday? What if the Huckabee campaign had bypassed Michigan and moved straight to South Carolina from New Hampshire? All of these questions are legitimate questions, but the campaign is not afforded the chance to go back and change anything. The votes have already been cast. So, now what?
Mike Huckabee made it clear in his South Carolina concession speech that the race is most certainly not over. As I have been saying all along, it is an uphill battle, but we all knew that going into this process. The pressure is mounting for Mike Huckabee to show he is not just the candidate of the evangelical Christians and to show he can draw the votes of over voting blocks as well. Can he do that? I believe so, though it will not be easy with the attacks coming from every corner. Keep in mind though, Florida is a different ball game than any of the other primaries so far.
In Florida, there will be no independents voting for John McCain. Nor will there be any Democrats crossing over to vote for a Republican candidate. This will limit the Republican primary to Republican voters and that is a plus for Huckabee. If you look at the way the votes were cast in South Carolina, it is clear Huckabee won the votes from the actual Republican voters. This shows his message is getting across to voters and that is a good sign. Can he win Florida? I think he can, though it will not be easy. Does he have to win Florida? I honestly think he does. I am no political expert, but looking at it in my own little way, it looks like the uphill battle Mike Huckabee faces to win the Republican nomination will be an overwhelming challenge, if he doesn’t win Florida. I believe he has something to prove and he needs to do it in Florida. If he doesn’t, anything he does in the Super Tuesday states may be too little, too late.
That’s my take!
Larry
Larry, I am becoming even more convinced that we will not have a clear winner, and this will go to a brokered convention. I do hope Huckabee stays in it to the end, and can help influence the final decision.
I am really leaning more and more to “none of the above” as a way to not only unite the base, get a decent candidate, but also have a chance in the generals. I am afraid that we have become way to fractured, and if any of the current candidates take the nomination… some of the base will stay home or go to a 3rd party. We also need some help from 3rd party/Independants in the genaral, and I am not sure we can do that with the current candidates (while bringing out the base to vote).
I am not sure how a brokered convention would work, but how can we have someone as the Republican nominee that hasn’t even been in the race? That doesn’t seem very fair to the candidates who have already been putting their time and effort into campaigning.
Larry – it is simialr to having a “write-in”.
Right now some of the delgates are not required to vote for anyone but who they choose (from non-binding caucuses) and there will be more of those. After the first vote at the convention, if no one has the majority, then all of the delegates are free to vote for whoever they want.
It may not be fair, but if there isn’t someone who is a clear winner after the first round or two, I would not be suprised if someone else who didn’t run is mentioned as a possible compromise…