Can Afghanistan have free and fair elections?
For the past several weeks, the United States military and other armed forces have been conducting operations throughout Afghanistan, in an effort to break the hold the Taliban have on that country. These efforts have really been stepped up in advance of the national elections that are scheduled to be held in two days, but even so, the threat of violence hovers overhead like a toxic cloud.
It troubles me to think of where the men and women of our armed forces are going to be. They are
currently engaged in the heaviest military engagement since we drove the Taliban from power in Afghanistan. If trouble erupts over these elections, they are going to be smack in the middle of it and will be charged with taking control of a very volatile situation. I am sure I will be proud of the job they do, but I will not envy them and the place they are in.
It is no secret that the Taliban are against these elections. They have been warning Afghan residents to not go to the polls, saying they run the risk of being a victim when polling sites are attacked. According to The Associated Press, they have even threatened those who are found to have voted, saying they may have their fingers chopped off. This is nothing less than what we should expect from the Taliban, because they have no respect for the rule of law, unless it is their own. I believe I can make that statement with some certainty because they have shown themselves to be guilty of such acts time after time.
On the other side of the coin, we have the candidates who are actually campaigning for elected office in Afghanistan. The current President is Hamid Karzai and he is running against his main rival, Abdullah Abdullah. From all indications, Abdullah is setting himself up to fall back on election fraud as the culprit, if he should lose the election. He has been telling supporters he will win the election, “if they don’t steal your votes”. I can’t judge Abdullah Abdullah’s intent, but this sort of rhetoric is troubling. I am sure he wants to win this election, but is he willing to play the sore loser if he doesn’t? If he is, then I have to wonder if he really has the best interest of his country in mind or if he just wants to win. There is a world of difference between the two positions.
I am no expert on Afghanistan, so I can’t really tell you who should win this election. There have been multiple complaints about corruption that seems to be related to President Karzai, but I suspect the same would apply to whoever holds the office of President in Afghanistan. What troubles me is how everything seems to be setting up for a time of major unrest in the country. No matter who wins this election, there may very well be trouble, either from the Taliban or from the supporters of the losing candidate. No matter where the trouble starts, we can fully expect the Taliban to take advantage of the situation. It gives me pause to wonder if it is possible for Afghanistan to ever achieve free and fair elections.
Afghanistan isn’t Iraq as it is too fractured to rule as a united nation. Saddam Hussein pulled the disparate Iraqi people together, but even then they’re still blowing things up and killing by the scores.
The Taliban in Afghanistan are exploiting local tribes who are the ones in control. Though a central government exists in Kabul, it is the tribal leaders who rule the land. Win the hearts and minds of the tribes and you stand a chance of stabilizing the country. If not, then it’ll be a lost cause.
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