Heretofore, I have not written about the turmoil and strife in Egypt that poses a very real threat to the rule of Hosni Mubarak, the man who has been the Egyptian President since October 14, 1981. 
Presently, the Middle East country is experiencing a popular uprising led by the Muslim Brotherhood. One thing I found ironic about this is some of Mubarak’s statements, in which he has declared that some religious groups have infiltrated the protests and that these groups have failed to take into consideration the constitutional rights and citizenship values of the Egyptian people. This, coming from a man who has ruled with an iron fist for 30 years and shown virtually no movement towards real democracy, is more than a little ironic. Words like that are sure to make no headway with the protesters, as they will view them to have little value.
For a number of years, Egypt has been a strong ally of the United States. They have served also as an ally to Israel and thus been a stabilizing force in the region. They made peace with Israel when no other country would and have caught no end of grief for that move from their Muslim neighbors. So, where does this leave the Middle East? What will happen if Hosni Mubarak steps down, either now or after elections in September? Personally, I hate to see street protests like this, simply because it means someone is likely to be injured or killed. That is what happened in Iran, when the police response to the protests got out of control. If that happens in Egypt, bloodshed is sure to ensue and that is always a sad thing. If Mubarak refuses to step down or hold elections, that bloodshed may be a necessary step to move Egypt towards democracy.
Speaking of democracy, who is likely to take over if Mubarak leaves office, before or after elections are held? There are a number of names in the mix, including Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Unfortunately, ElBaradei has ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, who has ties to different Islamic organizations that preach jihad or holy war. The last thing the United States and Israel needs to see in Egypt is a leadership vacuum being filled by Islamic groups who’s main goal is the destruction of our two countries. I am not naive enough to think I know what the answers are to the problems in Egypt, but removing Hosni Mubarak from office may not be the best move, depending on who takes control of the country. As difficult as it is for me to agree with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on most things, I think I will take my cue from her on this. Here is what she had to say Sunday about the situation, from Fox News.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton appealed for an orderly transition to lasting
democracy in Egypt even as escalating violence threatened Mideast stability. She refused to speculate on Mubarak’s future and his teetering government, but said U.S. officials “obviously want to see people who are truly committed to democracy, not to imposing any ideology on Egyptians.”
She warned Sunday against a takeover resembling the one in Iran, with a “small group that doesn’t represent the full diversity of Egyptian society” seizing control and imposing its ideological beliefs.
The U.S. wants to see “real democracy” emerge in Egypt, Clinton said, “not a democracy for six months or a year and then evolving into essentially a military dictatorship or a so-called democracy that then leads to what we saw in Iran.”
I think we would all do well to watch this situation very closely, as it could have long-lasting effects on the stability of the Middle East. The United States and the Obama administration needs to tread very carefully as this situation plays out. Right now, the Egyptian army has been deployed into the streets of Cairo, something that hasn’t happened since the mid-1980s. No matter how you look at it, that is never a good thing for democracy.
There is a time bomb ticking in the Middle East that is much bigger than Egypt. As I said the other day, this could be a Black Swan event that could have dire consequences for the whole world. Great post, Larry
I think you are right. The events that are unfolding in Egypt will have consequences for the entire world.
I haven’t written about this because I honestly don’t feel as if I know enough about it but I will say that we have to be very concerned about who takes over this country and what ramifications will this have with Egypt’s relations with Israel. I am worried about this situation to say the least.
I don’t know a lot about it myself, Steve. I do think the United States needs to tread very carefully and to understand that we may not get the outcome we think best. It is a very volatile situation, to say the least.
Iran wanted democracy, they got the ayatollah. The west bank wanted democracy, they got HAMAS. Afghanistan wanted democracy, they got Karzai. Now the Muslim Brotherhood has stepped forward as Egypt clamors for “democracy.” How do you think that’s going to turn out? The broader question is, is that what the people actually want? I think there are many in Egypt-and across the Islamic world who have no interest in Western style democracy.
I think you are exactly right, rjjrdq. That’s one reason I have always had reservations about President Bush’s desire to bring democracy to Iran and Afghanistan. They have a completely different mindset than we do and I have serious doubts about their desire for democracy.
My fear is that the Muslim Brotherhood will hijack the process and turn Egypt into another human rights hell-hole. That is a shame, because many of those protesters are kids that want a better life. If it goes as I think, they will be sorely disappointed.
I wish I could find a basis to disagree with you, Matt. Unfortunately, I can not.
I agree with Matt.
Whenever there is societal breakdown like we are witnessing in Egypt and a government is about to fold, there is always someone waiting to step in and bring prosperity and peace. The problem is this power vacuum could usher in a more radical ruler and this is what we must be on guard for.
Very true, John. Situations like we are seeing in Egypt tend to have a lot of unforeseen results.
If Mubarak falls expect the military to take the reins. Hopefully they won’t turn the country over to the Brotherhood. If they do expect WW3 in the Middle East.
I hope to God that you are wrong.
You have Egypt then Jordan then war with Israel with Iran lending a hand and a cut off of oil. The Saudi regime could be next. This is the worst case scenario but not implausible I think.
There doesn’t seem to be a GOOD side in this, unfortunately, and Egypt has been oppressing their Coptic Christian population terribly. My fear is that, with the Muslim Brotherhood– a terrorist organization– their numbers could disappear.
Indeed, Karen. I feel for the average citizen of Egypt. They seem to be caught between a rock and a very hard place.
Egypt,s future is not a easy solution. But,I believe that through the movement of common people, true democracy may prevail at last. Hope this is the first step to the windows of opportunity in the countries of the region, who are ignored by world power for so called balance of power for their own national and strategic interest.
Thanks for your comment, tauhid. I hope you are right and true democracy prevails at the last.